Background/Question/Methods The Colorado Plateau ecoregion supports one of the highest levels of endemism in the United States, with over 300 endemic plant species. The distribution of endemic plants in protected areas of the Colorado Plateau is not fully known and very little work has been completed in modeling range shifts in response to climate change. Modeling range shifts provides a better understanding of how protected areas can manage for climate change. It is recognized that protected areas will play a pivotal role in enabling species and ecosystems to persist in the face of climate change by providing refugia.

Results/Conclusions Species location data and environmental variables such as temperature, precipitation and geology were used to develop ecological niche models. The models were used to predict potential future distributions and to gain a better understanding of how protected areas may be used as refugia. The models identified geology and seasonal precipitation as the variables with the highest predictor AUC score while slope aspect and angle had the least. Although geology was found to be a strong indicator of suitable habitat for most species, the models were able to identify areas that a changing climate would affect the habitat making it unsuitable even though geology type was suitable. The models also distinguish several protected areas that could be used by many of the species for refugia. These results demonstrate the complex nature of a species’ response to climate change and stress the need for further study of biological risk.