Thursday, August 5, 2010: 1:30 PM-5:00 PM
301-302, David L Lawrence Convention Center
OOS 44 - Predicting the Present from the Past: Using Historic Datasets to Understand and Predict Climate Change Impacts
Studies over the past decade have predicted substantial range shifts and increased extinction probabilities for thousands of plant and animal species under climate change. The preponderance of these studies rely on empirical niche modeling approaches (also called climate envelope models) and are almost entirely untested because they lack temporally independent data necessary for validating their projections. The impact of these studies on scientific, political, and public debate is high, as they often form the basis for conservation and resource management planning decisions. Consequently, assessing the accuracy of these projections is critical, yet is lacking. An important approach to assessing niche model projections is to calibrate models with historic data and compare model projections to present-day data. The use of historic data for validating niche model projections is vital because it provides the only means to directly measure projection accuracy under measured climate change and assess the factors and assumptions that influence model skill. Unfortunately, large-scale historic datasets suitable for use in niche model development are rare and our understanding of the accuracy of climate change projections on biota is limited. This organized oral session is designed to highlight the use of historic data for assessing predictions about biotic responses to climate change. Presentations will focus on a variety of topics ranging from practical evaluations of niche models under measured climate change, tests of ecological theory, uncertainty analysis, and the coordination and development of historic datasets for use in impact assessment research.
Organizer:Solomon Dobrowski, University of Montana
Co-organizer:Shawn M. Crimmins, University of Montana
Moderator:Solomon Dobrowski, University of Montana
1:30 PMOOS 44-1Partial response of temperate forest plant communities to recent climate warming
Romain Bertrand, AgroParisTech, UMR1092 AgroParisTech-INRA, Jean-Claude Gégout, AgroParisTech, UMR1092 AgroParisTech-INRA, Jean-Claude Pierrat, INRA, UMR1092 AgroParisTech-INRA, Christian Piedallu, AgroParisTech, UMR1092 AgroParisTech-INRA
1:50 PMOOS 44-2Predicting the present from the past: Modeling plant species distributions over 75 years of measured climate change in California, USA
Solomon Dobrowski, University of Montana, James H. Thorne Sr., University of California, Davis, Jonathan Greenberg, Center for Spatial Technologies and Remote Sensing, Hugh D. Safford, USDA-Forest Service, Pacific Southwest Region; University of California-Davis, Department of Environmental Science and Policy, Alison R. Mynsberge, University of Montana, Shawn M. Crimmins, University of Montana
2:10 PMOOS 44-3The critical importance of a regional approach to understanding global change impacts on fire regimes
Jon E. Keeley, US Geological Survey, Kathryn N. Keeley, Woodlake High School
2:30 PMOOS 44-4Predicting the ranges of species across time spans relevant to conservation: Species distribution modeling of vertebrates observed by Joseph Grinnell and contemporary resurveys
Adam B. Smith, University of California, Berkeley, Rauri Bowie, University of California, Berkeley, Carla Cicero, University of California, Berkeley, Chris Conroy, University of California, Berkeley, Peter N. Epanchin, University of California, James Patton, University of California, Michelle Koo, University of California, Toni Lyn Morelli, University of California, Karen Rowe, University of California, Kevin Rowe, University of California, Emily Rubidge, University of California, Morgan W. Tingley, University of California, Berkeley, Steven R. Beissinger, University of California at Berkeley, Craig Moritz, Museum of Vertebrate Zoology, University of California, Berkeley
2:50 PMOOS 44-5Combining a dynamic vegetation model with paleoecology: A new approach to disentangle human and climatic influences on Mediterranean vegetation
Paul D. Henne, University of Bern, Willy Tinner, University of Bern
3:10 PM Break
3:20 PMOOS 44-6Understanding patterns of avian movement over 100 years: The niche perspective
Morgan W. Tingley, University of California at Berkeley, William B. Monahan, National Park Service, Steven R. Beissinger, University of California at Berkeley, Craig Moritz, Museum of Vertebrate Zoology, University of California at Berkeley
3:40 PMOOS 44-7Hardwood expansion along a conifer-oak ecotone
James H. Thorne, University of California, Davis, Solomon Dobrowski, University of Montana, Hugh D. Safford, USDA-Forest Service, Pacific Southwest Region; University of California-Davis, Department of Environmental Science and Policy
4:00 PMOOS 44-8Using historic databases to assess forest plant species range elevational shifts
Jonathan Lenoir, Ĺrhus University, Jean-Claude Gégout, AgroParisTech, UMR1092 AgroParisTech-INRA, Jens-Christian Svenning, Ĺrhus University
4:20 PMOOS 44-920th century shifts in optimum elevations of California plants: The importance of spatial scale
Shawn M. Crimmins, University of Montana, Solomon Dobrowski, University of Montana, Alison R. Mynsberge, University of Montana, James H. Thorne Sr., University of California, Davis
4:40 PMOOS 44-10Historically calibrated predictions of butterfly species range shift
Jeremy Kerr, University of Ottawa

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