Print PageClimate change and woody encroachment both are likely to alter the species composition and carbon and water balance of rangelands in the future. Climate change will bring warmer temperatures and, in many cases, drier conditions to rangelands. Woody encroachment will continue to shift the balance between C3 and C4 species and between herbaceous and woody species. An additional driver for vegetation change in rangelands over the next decade is climate/energy policy.
Results/Conclusions
We present a new global synthesis of changes in groundwater recharge that quantifies shifts in recharge for grassland, woodland, and cropland vegetation. Globally, shifts from grassland to woodland species could reduce groundwater recharge in rangelands by one third on average. Our new economic modeling for the United States suggests that GHG payments of up to $50 tCO2e could reduce GHG emissions by >700 million tCO2e per year through afforestation, forest management, and bioelectricity generation. However, simulated carbon payments also reduce rangeland and other agricultural land area in the U.S. by 10% or more, potentially decreasing agricultural exports and increasing commodity food prices, imports, and leakage. Along with the profound changes in rangelands that climate change and woody encroachment are likely to bring, climate policy will alter rangeland vegetation and ecosystem services substantially over the next decade or two.
