SS 29

Landscape-Scale Scenarios and Projections for Ecosystem Models in a Changing Climate: Research Needs and Capabilities for the National Climate Assessment

The Third National Climate Assessment (NCA3), released in May 2014, identified scenario development and use as one of the foundational cross-cutting research capabilities needed to support future climate assessments. Enhanced development of climate change, management, and disturbance scenarios will enhance future assessments at regional and landscape scales and can support co-production of information and exploration of options for decision and policy making that incorporate climate change.

The first half of the session will consist of an Ignite-style session that will present existing work and frame questions for the future. The first set of speakers will provide an overview of the future research directions in modeling and scenario analysis outlined as a part of the NCA3 process and an update on progress in the sustained assessment process, including work on new scenarios for land use and land cover change and population. The next set of speakers will highlight approaches for scenario development and use in landscape or regional scale modeling. The final speaker will describe challenges in developing and using scenarios and describe ways that researchers have addressed these challenges.

The second half of the session will be a large-group discussion (or, if necessary, participants will be broken into smaller groups). This will provide an opportunity for all participants to discuss current capabilities, identify science and capacity needs, and suggest pathways for action within the scientific community and as a part of the National Climate Assessment process.