Jason Walker and John M. Briggs. Arizizona State University
This study analyzed the interplay among socioeconomics, patterns of urban development, and their effect on vegetation dynamics in the Phoenix metropolitan area. I hypothesized that income is the driving factor primarily affecting neighborhood characteristics, which in turn have the largest influence on vegetation coverage. However, income’s direct effect on vegetation coverage (a) is minimal, but negatively correlated. This may seem counterintuitive; but can be explained by a tendency of richer families having some preference towards desert landscaping which would reduce total vegetation coverage. Within Phoenix, income and neighborhood age (d) appear to be negatively correlated. As Phoenix is a young urban development neighborhood age is a logical prediction of vegetation coverage (b). As Phoenix has developed land has become more expensive, resulting in higher housing density which should be next best predictor of vegetation coverage (c). As more housing structures are on the landscape, there is less available growing space and thus less vegetation. Housing density is also likely a function of house size. The conceptual model for Phoenix was tested via structural equation modeling (SEM), a statistical evaluation of the hypothesized path model and the empirical data. This analytical procedure allowed the direct and indirect effects of economic and housing variables to be incorporated and tested within a single hypothetical model, which explicitly accounts for the interdependence of dependent variables. Results from the SEM analysis for the Phoenix metropolitan area indicate that the hypothetical model appropriately fit the data. However, income was positively, not negatively, correlated with vegetation indicating that there either there is not a relationship between income and desert landscaping, or that desert landscaping does not limit urban biomass, as is commonly thought.