The physiological dependence of climate-induced range shifts: Predictions from a dynamic bioenergetic model

We present a dynamic bioenergetic model that couples individual energetics and population dynamics to predict current lizard ranges and those following climate warming.  The model predictions are uniquely based on first principles of morphology and thermal physiology.  We apply the model to 12 lizard species in North America.  Comparing actual current ranges to those predicted reveals how dispersal limitations and species interactions influence the occupied portions of thermally suitable ranges.  The dynamic model predicts individualistic responses to a uniform 3°C warming, but a northward shift in the northern range boundary for all species.  In contrast to standard, correlative climate envelope models, the extent of the predicted northward shift depends on organism physiology and energetic costs.  Our results highlight the limitations of correlative models and the need for more dynamic models of species’ ranges.