Polyploidy and species responses to climate change: Using ecological niche models to explore predicted range shifts in polyploid and diploid members of the Claytonia perfoliata (Portulacaceae) complex

Diploid and polyploid populations within a single taxonomic plant species are common, but ploidy level is often ignored as a factor in species level analyses and conservation planning.  Ploidy level has been associated with altered ecological tolerance, geographic range and biotic interactions, and may influence how populations respond to ecological changes such as climatic warming or habitat modification.  To examine how ploidy level may influence responses to climate change, I used Maxent to construct ecological niche models for polyploid and diploid members of the Claytonia perfoliata complex based on over 300 collections of known ploidy level from western North America.  These niche models were used to predict range shifts under proposed scenarios of climatic warming.  Models predict that diploid and polyploid populations will exhibit distinct responses to climate change, and that ploidy level may influence range size and distribution in changed environments.  Given that multiple ploidy levels are pervasive within plant species, understanding the different responses of diploids and polyploids to climate change has potential implications for predicting the future distribution of plant species.