A climate change vulnerability assessment for biodiversity in the southwestern US

There is growing evidence that climate change is already affecting species and may accelerate extinction rates. However, there is little practical guidance for how to increase ecological resilience and facilitate adaptation. In the southwestern U.S., where mean temperatures have increased by 1°C over the last three decades alongside rapid population growth, managers urgently need such guidance. In Fall of 2006, The Nature Conservancy in New Mexico initiated a state-wide assessment of the vulnerability of ecosystems and species to current and projected future climate changes. In the first phase of the project we used historical meteorological data and species location data to evaluate vulnerability to recent regional climate changes. We combined this with spatial data on land use change, invasive species, and altered disturbance regimes. Our preliminary results suggest that riparian and aquatic species and systems in the lower reaches of the state’s rivers and streams are at elevated risk of further degradation. Adjacent semi-arid grasslands also are at increased risk of rapid conversion. The next phase of our assessment will focus on developing planning scenarios utilizing downscaled (1) GCM data from the IPCC’s 2007 report and (2) data from a dynamic vegetation model (MC-1). Additionally, we will model potential suitable habitat for climate sensitive species. Using these results, a final phase of our project will identify management strategies for increasing ecological resilience and ultimately conserving native biodiversity facing the synergistic effects of climate change and other anthropogenic threats.