Evaluating social-ecological change in the Brazos River Basin, Texas

The Brazos River, the second largest basin in Texas, represents one of the most highly developed river systems in the state. Thirty-nine reservoirs with capacities greater than 5,000 acre-feet are currently in operation in the basin. Impacts on stream ecosystems are evidenced by changes in flow regimes and resulting changes in fish assemblages over the past 50 years. These changes have been widely attributed to human impacts, through the construction of dams, diversion of water supplies for agricultural and municipal uses, and land use change. However, streamflow regimes result from a complex mix of drivers that include climate, topography, land cover, land use practices, reservoir management practices, dam releases, and water consumption patterns, making determination of anthropogenic impacts problematic. This study quantifies changes in flow regime and probable historical drivers including precipitation, dam construction, population growth, and changing water demand in the Brazos River basin over the past 100 years. Results indicate that the climate of the basin has been relatively stable over the study period, while large-scale changes in human population densities and intense water resources development are correlated with major impacts on flow regimes, decreasing the frequency and magnitude of high flow events and stabilizing low flows.  These changes have resulted in an increase of habitat generalist fish species, a decrease of native obligate riverine fishes, and an overall homogenization of species assemblages. Our results indicate the importance of combining ecological data with an assessment of social drivers for a greater understanding of the dynamics of linked social-ecological systems.