Assessing the risk of three southern pine species to catastrophic loss following Hurricane Katrina

Numerous climate models are predicting global warming which will lead to more numerous and intense hurricanes for the southeastern USA.  These scenarios have serious implications for forest management.  In September 2005, Hurricane Katrina passed just to the west of a long-term study comparing the growth of longleaf (Pinus palustris), slash (P. elliottii) and loblolly pine (P. taeda).  This intensive study was initiated in 1960 on the Harrison Experimental Forest, near Saucier, MS, USA.  Five cultural combinations of cultivation and fertilizer treatments were applied to high specific gravity tree populations and five to average specific gravity tree populations for each species.  Following Hurricane Katrina, the stand was surveyed to assess the degree and type of damage by species.  The damage was compared across treatments.  Nearly 87% of the longleaf pine stems experienced little to no damage, while 82% of the slash pine and 61% of the loblolly pine stems experienced little to no damage.  Damage by species also varied.  Loblolly pine had the highest percentage of trees leaning, tipped up and with broken tops when compared to the other two species.  Slash pine had the highest percentage of trees with catastrophic breakage along the tree bole.  These results will likely have implications on ecological and economic projections if risk is taken into account.