Monday, August 6, 2007: 1:30 PM-5:00 PM
C1&2, San Jose McEnery Convention Center
Organizer:
Erica Fleishman, University of California, Davis
Co-organizers:
Jeanne Chambers, USDA Forest Service; and
Michael Wisdom, USDA Forest Service
Moderator:
Erica Fleishman, University of California, Davis
Natural and anthropogenic processes are resulting in extensive and rapid land cover and land use changes in the Great Basin. Between 1990 and 2000, for example, human populations of Nevada and Utah increased by 66% and 30%. Such shifts present substantial mangement challenges, especially given the region’s aridity, high proportion (75%) of public land, and concentration of endemic and threatened species. This session will synthesize current efforts to predict changes in land cover and faunal distributions in the Great Basin under different management scenarios. First, we will present an overview of major land cover and land use changes affecting ecological status and restoration potential. Next, we examine alternative future configurations of land cover and vegetation structure, assuming different ecological starting conditions, climate change trajectories, or management actions. Recent models of faunal response to topography and vegetation facilitate predictions of wildife distributions under alternative scenarios. Speakers will address expansion of a native (pinyon-juniper woodland) and non-native (
Bromus tectorum) vegetation types, natural and anthropogenic changes in hydrology, and emerging patterns of exurban settlement, and consider the drivers of these changes, ranging from climate to market economics. In addition, speakers will elucidate how spatially explicit models can be used to explain observed land use and land cover change, predict future changes under different sets of rules, and forecast how management alternatives may affect future conditions. Our synthesis draws from both natural and social sciences and applies remote sensing, GIS, and advanced spatial modeling, including Bayesian approaches, to resolve the most effective management tools for restoration. Much of the work presented represents multidisciplinary collaboration between researchers and management agencies. The issues and tools highlighted here are germane to managed ecoregions elsewhere in the United States and worldwide.