Livelihood diversification can alter social-ecological systems. Understanding the drivers of diversification is relevant to both biodiversity and socioeconomic development, particularly in multiple-use conservation areas such as those in northern Tanzania. One dramatic example is the adoption of agriculture by Maasai herders, a case that holds special interest because of the paucity of research on the causes and consequences of livelihood change among herding populations, who occupy vast portions of the African landscape. Maasai in the study area claim that rainfall in recent history has decreased and become less dependable, but this perception might arise from factors such as increased population pressure on savanna resources due to population growth and loss of land for creation of parks.  We analyzed precipitation data from the study region for changes in rainfall quantity and variability between 1936 and 2002 and compared these to rates of agriculture adoption by Maasai households.  Data from household economics and family history surveys of 93 households in Loliondo and 120 households in Simanjiro were also analyzed to elucidate other reasons for livelihood diversification.

Results/Conclusions

Preliminary results indicate consistency between Maasai perceptions of rainfall decline and actual precipitation trends.  It appears that rainfall in the late 1950s and early 1960s was higher than in recent years, with a nearly 50% decline in precipitation (measured as 3-year moving averages) between 1958 and 1977 in Loliondo, followed by more moderate fluctuations until the present.  Analysis does not show a clear relationship between the timing of adoption or intensification of agriculture and fluctuations in rainfall.  Perceptions of less dependable precipitation may have been augmented by the increasing importance of agriculture, the success of which depends on spatially and temporally predictable rainfall more than does the traditional pastoralism.  The reasons for adopting agriculture provided by the Maasai interviewed did not focus explicitly on rainfall patterns; rather, most cited motivations such as wanting to avoid selling livestock for needed food or money.  However, the results do suggest that perceived temporal variations in climate and in rainfall-dependent resources play a role in the changing livelihood and land use patterns along with changes in household and regional demography, cultural norms, and political-economic context.