Results/Conclusions Overall, the model was able to integrate previously collected data and produce expected forecasts of M. forceps larval and juvenile culture. According to the model, a batch of 1500 larvae reared in ten 10 L tanks in optimal conditions (10 prey.mL-1 and 28oC) and then, as juveniles, in a 3 m2 water table at 28ºC, is expected to reach commercial size in 122 days. Sensitivity analysis revealed that temperature is the most important factor regulating survival and growth, and consequently profit: lower temperatures cause an increase in mortality and increase culture time; higher temperatures are more deleterious but promote a faster growth. Although productivity per tank is higher at higher stocking densities, survival and growth decrease with increasing stocking density, so the productivity increases as the animals are distributed to the greater number of tanks. However, productivity increase is followed up by an increase in feeding, labor and maintenance costs, which can reduce profit. The model simulations will allow managers to find the most profitable culture combination to the characteristics of aquaculture facility.
The implementation of predictive models to wider range of species culture would allow improvement of aquaculture efficiency and profitability and therefore, protect environment by minimizing wild collection.