Thursday, August 7, 2008: 10:10 AM
103 C, Midwest Airlines Center
Catherine Jarnevich, Fort Collins Science Center, U.S. Geological Survey, Fort Collins, CO and Thomas J. Stohlgren, Natural Resource Ecology Laboratory, Fort Collins
Background/Question/Methods Climate change and invasive species pose distinct and important conservation issues, however they are mutually important and need to be addressed with integrated science. We used existing long term climate datasets for the US to project potential climate change into the future at a finer spatial and temporal resolution than the climate change scenarios generally available for future predictions. These fine scale projections, along with new species distribution modeling techniques that forecast the potential distribution of invasive species, can provide valuable information to aide conservation and invasive species management. We examined the utility of these fine scale layers and new species distribution modeling techniques by creating habitat suitability maps for an invasive species under current climatic conditions and potential climate scenarios 10, 20, 50, and 100 years in the future. We also explored how the potential distribution of this species might be affected by changing climate, and the management implications associated with these changes.
Results/Conclusions We distinguished locations where populations were decreasing, stable, and increasing. We were, however, surprised at how little the distribution actually altered over time with climate change, but the changes can still guide early detection/rapid response activities and control efforts.
