The dependence of the North American feline species Lynx canadensis (Canada Lynx) on deep winter snow and boreal forest renders it vulnerable to climate change. Deep snow and boreal forest provide habitat for Lepus americanus (snowshoe hare), the principal prey of lynx.
Results/Conclusions
Analyses of lynx observations and remote sensing-derived snow cover in the period 1966-2005 show 95% of the observed range of lynx in areas with at least four months of winter snow cover and a mean January temperature ≤ -8.5° C. If this association of lynx and snow persists in the future, projected warming of 2.5 to 4° C in the period 1990-2100 A.D. (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios B1, A1B, and A2) could decrease snow cover suitable for lynx by 10% to 20% across the continental U.S. and Canada, with an estimated confidence of 95%. Modeling of vegetation at a spatial resolution of 8 km using the MC1 dynamic global vegetation model under the IPCC scenarios projects decreases in boreal and subalpine forest extent by half in the lower 48 United States and by one-tenth across the U.S. and Canada. Projections of snow and vegetation cover in combination indicate that climate change could reduce potential lynx habitat by up to two-thirds in the lower 48 United States and by up to one-fifth across the U.S. and Canada by 2100 A.D. Areas of nearly continuous snow cover and boreal forest may shift towards relatively cooler polar areas, shifting lynx habitat northward as much as 200 km. Canada and Alaska may lose lynx habitat in southern areas, while some new habitat may develop in polar areas that are now tundra. Potential conservation priority areas for lynx include areas in the Bridger-Teton National Forest (Wyoming) and Superior National Forest (Minnesota), which lie in potential refugia. Vulnerable areas that could lose potential lynx habitat in the long-term include the Bridger-Teton (Wyoming), Idaho Panhandle (Idaho), Kootenai (Montana), Okanogan (Washington), Wenatchee (Washington), and White Mountains (New Hampshire) National Forests, high-altitude areas in Colorado, and Yellowstone and Grand Teton National Parks (Wyoming).
