Thursday, August 7, 2008: 4:40 PM
102 E, Midwest Airlines Center
Background/Question/Methods
Recent global climate trends indicate a steady increase in annual mean temperature. Several ecological questions derive from this trend, such as how predictable are the downstream ecosystem consequences? Can we translate measurable events in the troposphere into ground truth expectations of terrestrial or aquatic habitat change? Do we understand enough about global warming causes to mitigate ecosystem impacts without resulting in unforeseen or unintended consequences? In short, could action to reverse GHG emissions to 50% of 1990 levels advocated by the IPCC result in undesirable ecosystem outcomes, e.g., comparatively less biodiversity? Addressing these questions will require neo-compartmental modeling algorithms and compute prowess that is the envy of climate scientists. But first, we must examine and model the global temperature data themselves. An analysis was performed on two annual mean global temperature datasets, one compiled by the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) (1880-2006) and the other known as the Hadley dataset (1850-2007). A comparison was made among successive sequences of approximately 30 yrs each by within sequence linear regression and a simultaneous statistical inference method for comparing regression slopes.
Results/Conclusions
The second and fourth sequences (1917-1946, 1977-2006) in the GISS data show statistically equivalent and positive (p<.05) slopes. The first and third sequences (1880-1916, 1947-1976) are not significantly different from zero or from each other. The slope of the first sequence in the Hadley data is significant (p<.05) and negative and the third significant (p<.05) and positive, though significantly smaller (p<.05) than either the second or fourth, which are again statistically equivalent. Why isn’t this a consistently increasing temperature trend? Annual atmospheric CO2 measurements have been increasing continuously since 1959 at the Mauna Loa, HI weather station, but show a positive correlation with annual mean global surface temperature only since 1977 and no correlation before. What are we missing here? Global energy demand will surely increase with temperature and perhaps will not be offset by reduced energy expenditures in higher latitudes. It will only be exacerbated by population and economic growth. Therefore, adaptation may be as essential as mitigation if science cannot effectively model, simulate, and learn fast enough. Since the first holistic natural science is ecosystem science, it is in a strong position to champion efforts to seek a deeper understanding of planetary homeostasis. The study of globosystem science modeling and measurement will be the next higher scale of ecosystem research, and the ultimate logos of this oikos.
Recent global climate trends indicate a steady increase in annual mean temperature. Several ecological questions derive from this trend, such as how predictable are the downstream ecosystem consequences? Can we translate measurable events in the troposphere into ground truth expectations of terrestrial or aquatic habitat change? Do we understand enough about global warming causes to mitigate ecosystem impacts without resulting in unforeseen or unintended consequences? In short, could action to reverse GHG emissions to 50% of 1990 levels advocated by the IPCC result in undesirable ecosystem outcomes, e.g., comparatively less biodiversity? Addressing these questions will require neo-compartmental modeling algorithms and compute prowess that is the envy of climate scientists. But first, we must examine and model the global temperature data themselves. An analysis was performed on two annual mean global temperature datasets, one compiled by the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) (1880-2006) and the other known as the Hadley dataset (1850-2007). A comparison was made among successive sequences of approximately 30 yrs each by within sequence linear regression and a simultaneous statistical inference method for comparing regression slopes.
Results/Conclusions
The second and fourth sequences (1917-1946, 1977-2006) in the GISS data show statistically equivalent and positive (p<.05) slopes. The first and third sequences (1880-1916, 1947-1976) are not significantly different from zero or from each other. The slope of the first sequence in the Hadley data is significant (p<.05) and negative and the third significant (p<.05) and positive, though significantly smaller (p<.05) than either the second or fourth, which are again statistically equivalent. Why isn’t this a consistently increasing temperature trend? Annual atmospheric CO2 measurements have been increasing continuously since 1959 at the Mauna Loa, HI weather station, but show a positive correlation with annual mean global surface temperature only since 1977 and no correlation before. What are we missing here? Global energy demand will surely increase with temperature and perhaps will not be offset by reduced energy expenditures in higher latitudes. It will only be exacerbated by population and economic growth. Therefore, adaptation may be as essential as mitigation if science cannot effectively model, simulate, and learn fast enough. Since the first holistic natural science is ecosystem science, it is in a strong position to champion efforts to seek a deeper understanding of planetary homeostasis. The study of globosystem science modeling and measurement will be the next higher scale of ecosystem research, and the ultimate logos of this oikos.
