We ask whether serpentine endemic plants are at heightened risks of extinction from climate change, either because they are more sensitive to climate per se, or because their confinement to localized areas of special substrates limits their ability to shift their ranges. We present a conceptual model predicting the responses of endemics versus nonendemics to altered rainfall. We then assess whether ~55 years of climate change impacts on plant communities associated with serpentine and nonserpentine soils after resampling areas originally sampled by Robert Whittaker from 1949-1951 in the Klamath-Siskiyou mountains in Oregon.
Results/Conclusions
Serpentine and nonserpentine plant distributions have both changed over ~55 years and extinction risk may be higher for plants on serpentine vs. nonserpentine soils. Since serpentine endemics, and other edaphic endemics, contribute disproportionately to the world's botanical diversity, these findings may indicate that such biodiversity hotspots are at heightened risk from climate change.
