We implemented a multi-scale component for the spatially explicit forest ecosystem model, LANDIS-II that allowed us to imbed conservation priority areas, (focal landscapes) modeled at a finer scale (28.5 x 28.5m cells; 160,000 ha extent) into a 2 million ha study region modeled at a coarser resolution (142.5 x 142.5m cells). Multi-scale functionality enabled alternative management scenarios in each focal landscape to be considered in the context of processes occurring at broader scales, such as regional trends of species migration and extirpation associated with climate change. Modeling finer scale management activity in the focal regions allowed smaller harvest unit sizes and more detailed planting prescriptions. This modeling approach provides a framework to investigate how fine scale dynamics interact with those in the broader landscape matrix. We simulated current management in the broad forest matrix with three alternative management scenarios in the focal landscapes (current management, restoration management and assisted migration). The three management scenarios were simulated with two climate scenarios (current climate and a climate change scenario) for a total of six scenarios.
Results/Conclusions
Climate change and the aggregate effects of management activity at the broad scale influenced species composition in the focal landscapes by altering landscape connectivity and changing the distribution and abundance of seed sources. However, fine scale dynamics were also important. In the restoration scenario under climate change some species that were extirpated in the surrounding matrix were retained in the focal regions. In climate change scenarios focal landscape productivity was highest in the assisted migration scenario. Results highlight the importance of considering the influence of broad scale processes on dynamics within focal landscapes and how management activity can alter trajectories of climate induced shifts in forest composition.
