As invasive plants continue to increase worldwide, there is an increased demand to assess and categorize species for management priority. This study assessed the use of a climate-matching model to improve predictions of plant species spread. We analyzed species that had been chosen using expert opinion for designated listing as able to spread widely in California from a small distribution in 1999, and determined whether this model could have predicted more accurately the subsequent spread of these species.

Results/Conclusions

In half of the cases the model correctly predicted the outcome of species’ spread, while expert opinion predicted only one-third of the outcomes. Although the model predictions showed varied success with mesic and riparian species, good predictive outcomes were obtained for all herbaceous species. Climactic preferences and limitations should be considered for prioritization of invasive species when planning large-scale management and early detection programs.