Background/Question/Methods Climate change will likely alter the population dynamics of mosquitoes and mosquito-borne diseases. We investigated the mechanisms responsible for this by studying the population dynamics of the Asian tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus). We created a population model for this mosquito species and validated the model against current field data from Lubbock, TX. Next we incorporated the population into a disease model. These models were used with downscaled climate projections to examine potential dengue outbreaks.

Results/Conclusions We found that climate change will likely increase the mosquito season and create conditions similar to the 1920s in southeast Texas when massive outbreaks of dengue occurred.

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