Tuesday, August 4, 2009: 8:00 AM-11:30 AM
Blrm A, Albuquerque Convention Center
OOS 9 - Indicators of Regime Shifts in Ecological Systems
Surging interest in ecological regime shifts, or massive changes in ecological systems, has expanded the scope of research on indicators. Indicators are important for anticipating, detecting and quantifying regime shifts. Some regime shifts, such as desertification, eutrophication, fisheries declines, or rangeland degradation, have important human consequences. Thus there is interest in leading indicators of incipient regime shifts that could be used to trigger management interventions to prevent degradation of ecosystem services. Current research in a wide variety of ecosystems is rapidly expanding our knowledge of indicators of regime shifts. Examples include studies of ecosystem-specific indicators of change using long-term data, statistical innovations for analysis of time series and spatially-structured ecosystems, and theoretical insights about observable characteristics of ecosystems undergoing regime shifts. For this session, we invited and coordinated a set of talks designed to expose, compare and contrast the diversity of data, theories and points of view about indicators of ecosystem regime shifts. The speakers include two leading theorists, as well as field scientists representing a range of perspectives and ecosystem types. Marten Scheffer will discuss his work on critical transitions in relation to leading indicators of a wide range of shifts in ecosystems, climate, finance and physiology. Max Rietkerk will discuss spatial pattern transitions and the implications of this crucial theoretical area for the science of leading indicators. Deb Peters will discuss patterns emerging from synthesis of extensive long-term data sets from ecosystems subject to regime shifts. Paolo d’Orico will address regime shifts in ecohydrology and vegetation of desert grasslands. Craig Allen will present a 300 year time series study of repeated regime shifts in a dynamic ecotone. Brad de Young will explore new findings about indicators of massive change in marine ecosystems. We have also left two open slots for papers that are offered during the general submission process to the ESA meeting. Steve Carpenter, the last speaker, will attempt to sum up the session. He will comment particularly on questions of statistical inference from ecological time series, experimental opportunities for evaluating indicators, and policy implications of leading indicators.
Organizer:	Steve Carpenter, University of Wisconsin
Co-organizers:	Michael L. Pace, University of Virginia Debra P.C. Peters, USDA Agricultural Research Service
Moderator:	Michael L. Pace, University of Virginia
8:00 AM	OOS 9-1		Cross-system patterns of leading indicators of regime shifts Marten Scheffer, Wageningen University
8:20 AM	OOS 9-2		Spatial pattern formation in ecosystems: Implications for indicators of critical transitions Max Rietkerk, Utrecht University
8:40 AM	OOS 9-3		Indicators of regime shifts in long-term ecological data Debra P.C. Peters, USDA Agricultural Research Service
9:00 AM	OOS 9-4		Regime shift interruptus: When do we act? Aaron M. Ellison, Harvard University, Harvard Forest
9:20 AM	OOS 9-5		Precursors of regime shifts in ecosystems: The case of arid grasslands Paolo D'Odorico, University of Virginia, Gianluca Guadagni, University of Virginia, Gregory S. Okin, UCLA
9:40 AM			Break
9:50 AM	OOS 9-6		Variance as an indicator of biogeomorphic regime shifts in wetland ecosystems Jim Heffernan, Florida International University, Danielle L. Watts, University of Florida, Matthew J. Cohen, University of Florida
10:10 AM	OOS 9-7		Multiple ecological regime shifts during the past 500 years at a dynamic forest/woodland transition zone in New Mexico Craig D. Allen, Jemez Mountains Field Station
10:30 AM	OOS 9-8		What do regime shifts of the past indicate about those likely to come? Stephen T. Jackson, University of Wyoming, Simon Brewer, University of Wyoming
10:50 AM	OOS 9-9		CANCELLED - Marine regime shifts: Patterns and indicators Brad de Young, Memorial University
11:10 AM	OOS 9-10		Indicators of ecosystem regime shifts: Emerging patterns Steve Carpenter, University of Wisconsin

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