CANCELLED - Marine regime shifts: Patterns and indicators

Background/Question/Methods Regime shifts are abrupt changes between contrasting, persistent states of any complex system. The potential for their prediction in the ocean and possible management depends upon the characteristics of the regime shifts; their drivers (from anthropogenic to natural), scale (from the local to the basin) and potential for management action (from adaptation to mitigation). I will discuss different examples of oceanic regime shifts and present a conceptual framework that will enhance our ability to detect, predict and manage regime shifts in the ocean. I will present data from the Northeast and Northwest Atlantic and the Pacific Ocean looking at the common features that these regime shifts present and also their differences.

Results/Conclusions I will explore our ability to identify regime shifts, both in the sense of sampling them and in identifying them in data. Our ability to adapt to, or manage, regime shifts depends upon their uniqueness, our understanding of their causes and linkages among ecosystem components and our observational capabilities.