Mediated modeling to scope for sustainable pathways

Background/Question/Methods Many ecological and social indicators reveal that humanity is currently on an unsustainable pathway. New Zealand is a country with a low population density (16 people/sq km) among OECD countries. It has a high Human Development Index of 94% (UNDP).  New Zealand (NZ) is an island nation and relatively remotely located away from any other landmass. It is highly dependent on trade of its natural resources. NZ too is currently on an unsustainable pathway and locked into an economic growth paradigm as measured by Gross Domestic Product. The Global Footprint Network reports a gradually declining bio-capacity, down from 24 global hectares per person in 1961 to 14 gha/pp in 2005. Future scenario exercises in NZ revealed a desire for a more sustainable future, but these story-based exercises also revealed a belief that NZ is currently moving in the opposite direction of “sustainable and desirable”. The NZ government has ambitious goals for a reduction of NZ’s, and in particular Auckland’s, appetite for energy and other resources. There is a gap between stated goals and ways and means to reach those goals. To make matters worse, there is no agreed upon integrated method to measure the degree to which the goals are being achieved or what the trade offs are now and in the future. Results/Conclusions In order to forge a tighter connection between goals and sustainable pathways, we report on a 6-year research project  “Sustainable Pathways”. We are embarking on a second 6-year research extension to build a Multi-scale Integrated Assessment for Sustainable and Adaptive Management. A core element of this program is a Mediated Modeling process at the national, regional and local levels. Mediated Modeling is a process that brings together a group of stakeholders who engage in a dialogue to collaboratively build a system dynamics model.  The aim is to synthesize existing data and information in a relatively simple scoping model to simulate sustainable pathways. After a cycle of adaptive management, more detailed research or spatially explicit modeling approaches may be developed.  Uncertainties and trade-offs become clear. Creative tensions between desirable goals and current decisions also become clear. The on-going research program will help create and implement a path to a sustainable future for New Zealand.