Monday, August 3, 2009
Exhibit Hall NE & SE, Albuquerque Convention Center
Jennifer M. Redman1, Michael T. Calkins1, Mark C. Andersen1 and Kenneth G. Boykin2, (1)Fish, Wildlife, and Conservation Ecology, New Mexico State University, Las Cruces, NM, (2)Fish, Wildlife and Conservation Ecology, New Mexico State University, Las Cruces, NM
Background/Question/Methods The response of ecosystems to climate change will lead to lower elevation habitats moving upwards in latitude and elevation. However, much of the research on climate change and species distributions has focused on detecting changes in geographic ranges with non-climatic static variables. Therefore, to better assess the impact of climate change on species distributions a dynamic landscape should be taken into consideration. The objective of our research was to develop future land cover maps under climate change scenarios to predict future suitable habitat for two habitat specialists: the grassland-inhabiting Swift Fox (Vulpes velox) and a montane species, Palmer’s Chipmunk (Tamias palmeri). We used Maximum Entropy to generate future land cover maps and species distributions under 30 climate change scenarios with temperature increases ranging from 1 to 5 degree Celsius in combination with a 10 to 50 percent reduction in precipitation. Southwest Regional Gap Analysis Program data were the basis for our current land cover maps and animal distribution models. Climate variable were derived from WORLDCLIM data. Results/Conclusions
Our results show a significant reduction in habitat for both species due to climate change, with the Palmer’s Chipmunk losing 100% of its habitat, and the Swift Fox losing 75% of its habitat. Thus, both montane and lowland species are vulnerable to climate change; effective conservation strategies for these species should include identifying suitable new areas into which they can be translocated.
