We present a stage based SI (Susceptible-Infected) model for Sin Nombre hantavirus dynamics in the deer mouse reservoir host, including density dependence in survival, maturation, and disease transmission. We explore the dynamics of this model and estimate parameters from an extensive deer mouse dataset spanning ten and a half years from Montana. We calculate R0 and critical community size and discuss implications for control of the virus in its reservoir host. From previous studies, we have concluded that precipitation and temperature have significant impacts on survival and maturation, which we believe is a result of altering the carrying capacity. We, therefore, explore the possible effects of precipitation and temperature by altering the carrying capacity in our stage based SI model.
Results/Conclusions
Our results suggest that there is significant disease induced mortality caused by the virus (contrary to the common assumption that mice are not affected by the virus), and increasing the carrying capacity significantly increases the prevalence of disease.
