The Yellowstone wolf population has grown rapidly since their introduction, starting from 21 individuals at the end of first year (1995) to 124 in 2008. The number of packs also has grown, increasing from three in the first year, to nine in the second, to the currently recognized set of 11 packs. I assess how the growth of this population, the membership of individuals within packs, and the spatial patterning and contacts among individuals within packs and contacts among packs influence potential transmission patterns of canine parvovirus (CPV), the agent that is suspected to have caused widespread mortality, chiefly among pups, in 2005. The population is modeled using an individual-based approach to simulate the transmission network.
Results/Conclusions
Results from the model suggest that if the basic reproductive rate (Ro) of CPV is relatively low (but greater than unity) and there is an intermediate level of contact among pack members and wolf packs that CPV may have a larger negative impact than outbreaks with relatively high Ro values. Vaccination strategies are tested numerically from targeting individual wolves to preferentially targeting wolf packs to minimize extent of CPV infection. The best vaccination strategy targets dominant, resident adults, lone wolves that move among packs, long-distance dispersers, but surprisingly not lower-status wolves that successfully change pack membership.
