94th ESA Annual Meeting (August 2 -- 7, 2009)

Thursday, August 6, 2009

Exhibit Hall NE & SE, Albuquerque Convention Center

Stephen B. Cox¹, Richard A. Erickson², Linda J. S. Allen³, Kevin R. Long³ and Steven M. Presley⁴, (1)Department of Environmental Toxicology, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX, (2)Upper Midwest Environmental Sciences Center, United States Geological Survey, La Crosse, WI, (3)Department of Mathematics & Statistics, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX, (4)The Institute of Environmental and Human Health and Department of Environmental Toxicology, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX

Background/Question/Methods Climate change will likely alter the population dynamics of mosquitoes and mosquito-borne diseases. We investigated the mechanisms responsible for this by studying the population dynamics of the Asian tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus). We created a population model for this mosquito species and validated the model against current field data from Lubbock, TX. Next we incorporated the population into a disease model. These models were used with downscaled climate projections to examine potential dengue outbreaks.

Results/Conclusions We found that climate change will likely increase the mosquito season and create conditions similar to the 1920s in southeast Texas when massive outbreaks of dengue occurred.

Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

PS 66-101 - Potential impact of climate change on mosquito population dynamics