Uncertainty – the situation in which a decision maker is lacking robust estimates of the probability of specific outcomes – accompanies many important ecological and environmental issues confronting policy makers, managers, and the public today. The very term “uncertainty” holds different connotations for scientists, decision makers, and the general public. The existence of uncertainty, and its different meanings for different groups, can constrain the communication, interpretation and integration of scientific information in the decision-making process. Ecologists may be reluctant to make predictions beyond a clearly defined domain; policy makers may seek certainty regarding decision points or thresholds; managers may be under intense pressure to avoid errors of commission and thus seek to resolve some kinds of uncertainty; and public acceptance of scientific understanding can be hindered by perceptions of uncertainty or “scientific controversy.”
Results/Conclusions
This symposium includes representatives of the media, natural resources management, and public policy settings who address the meaning and interpretation of scientific uncertainty from their unique perspectives. We explore the role that uncertainty plays in the development (or delay) of environmental policy and management approaches, and in the public's perception of environmental and resource management issues. Case studies are presented in which the perception of scientific uncertainty affects decisions being made in several areas related to sustainability of resources or of ecosystems. Finally, we describe principles that can make us as scientists more comfortable and more effective in communicating scientific understanding and uncertainty to various audiences.
