Climate warming and potential changes in alpine floras in European mountain regions

Background/Question/Methods Climate warming in the twentieth century has influenced biodiversity patterns and high mountain plants are likely to be more sensitive to such changes than others. By a combination of warming and resulting upward movement of competitors those species which are adapted to cold habitats may become threatened of losing their habitats.  We present a niche-based model to assess the likely responses of European alpine vascular plant species to climate warming. We used field distribution patterns of 720 species in relation to soil
temperature from 71 summits in 18 high mountain systems from mediterranean to sub-arctic latitudes. The model parameterisation included IPCC storylines and spatially explicit future climate projections. 

Results/Conclusions The degree of warming-induced potential impact on alpine floras across Europe varies remarkably among mountain regions. Systems with a narrow alpine zone both in terms of altitude and temperature range could, from a climatic point of view, potentially lose 50 to 100% of their alpine species in the twenty-first century. These comprise one-third of the studied mountain systems. Warming impacts in mountains which have broad alpine zones might be markedly lower. Climate based scenarios may be considerably modified by species-specific persistence, migration rates, and biotic interactions.