Background/Question/Methods   In the past, as climates changed, many species moved thousands of kilometers to track suitable climates. Species movements in response to projected future climatic changes will be far more restricted due to the human presence on the landscape. Several recent studies have projected potential future shifts in species distributions in response to climate change. These projections indicate the potential for large shifts in species distributions and large changes in local biodiversity. Although these projections provide a good first approximation of the nature of potential range shifts and the magnitude or spatial distribution of potential changes in biodiversity, the uncertainties in these projections bring their utility for conservation planning and for addressing connectivity into question. Here, we explore one way in which projected range shifts and projected changes in climate could be used for identifying areas that are important for connectivity in a changing climate. Specifically, we use projected range shifts for 2954 vertebrate species to assess, for any given place in the western hemisphere, the general direction that species are likely to move in response to climate change. We demonstrate how these movement vectors can be used in conjunction with other data sources to prioritize areas to promote connectivity in a changing climate.

Results/Conclusions   In the western hemisphere, some of the largest projected climate-driven changes in vertebrate faunas are in western South America and the far northern latitudes. In these regions, some areas are projected to experience over 90% turnover in vertebrate species. Not surprisingly, much of the movement in these regions is projected to be to higher elevations and northward, respectively. However, projected movement patterns are less consistent in other parts of the hemisphere. When overlaid with land-use data, the data on potential species movements provide additional tools for planning for connectivity in a changing climate.