Tuesday, August 3, 2010

PS 32-73: Does the downed and dead wood forest inventory of the United States have the power to detect carbon flux?

Christopher W. Woodall, USDA Forest Service, Northern Research Station

Background/Question/Methods

Across the United States the carbon (C) flux of down woody material (DWM) detrital pools has largely been simulated based on forest stand attributes (e.g., stand age).  DWM C flux has only recently been assessed using large-scale forest inventories for the Nation.  Given the relatively small flux of DWM C and sparse sample intensity of current forest inventories, the question remains whether DWM C flux can be monitored nationally with statistical power.  Using a large-scale DWM C inventory across the north central United States, a power analysis was conducted to determine the probability of current inventories missing a substantially large DWM C flux.

Results/Conclusions

DWM C flux was found to be relatively static with an annual flux rate not statistically different from zero.  Current inventory sample intensity may only be able to detect annual DWM C flux if it exceeds 1, 4, and 6+ percent nationally, regionally, and at state-levels, respectively.  It appears as though the DWM C inventory of the United States only has the statistical power to detect annual DWM C flux at the national level; whereas at smaller state-scales the inventory only has the statistical power to detect C flux when massive disturbances occur to DWM C stocks.