Results/Conclusions

Our model calculated optimal energy allocation strategies for females representative of Lake Erie’s spawning yellow perch population during historically typical distributions of summer hypoxia and winter conditions.  We then simulated yellow perch energy allocation and reproductive potential using these strategies under both current and future (i.e., predicted by climate change models) environmental conditions, to gain insight into the potential bioenergetic costs of climate change.  We modeled energy allocation to structural growth, fat reserves, and gonads during winter given (1) energetic condition entering the winter (a function of extent of hypoxia during the previous growing season), (2) winter temperature regime, and (3) prey availability during the winter.  The optimal allocation pattern was that strategy that resulted in the highest expected lifetime fitness (i.e., total number of eggs produced).  Preliminary results indicate that short winters result in similar amounts of energy allocated to ovaries as in long winters; however, when condition entering the winter is poor and winter prey resources are low, reproductive development is abandoned during both warm and cold winters.