The Lost Pines forest, a disjunct population of Pinus taeda L. in central Texas, continues to provide insights about how forests will respond to climate change in North America. Located at the westernmost edge of the species' natural range, the Lost Pines area is subject to prolonged drought and sparse rainfall yet its climate change forecasts are highly uncertain. Here, a synthesis approach was used to inform and refine climate change response. Data were drawn from the following sources: a) recorded history, b) geological records, c) phylogeography based on mitochondrial DNA data and d) a population genetics profile based on both DNA marker and phenotypic data. Findings from the Lost Pines study were then contrasted with similar data sources from coastal North Carolina Pinus taeda populations.

Results/Conclusions

Results of the synthesis showed that Lost Pines forest was once a large pine island within a pine archipelago which was scattered along a specific geological formation, that evidence for its Pleistocene-Holocene past is sparse and that repeated dispersal events have re-seeded the archipelago possibly from east to west while meso-scale pollen flow occurred in the other direction, i.e. west to east. Using these results, we discuss refinements to the retreating edge model for climate change response.