Background/Question/Methods
Climate change will result in sea-level rise that will inundate low-lying coastal areas. Species that inhabit low-lying barrier islands will be at high risk for decline and extinction. Concern is especially high for species of conservation concern. We assessed the threat of sea-level rise to the breeding habitat of the federally threatened piping plover on the barrier islands of Suffolk County, New York. We determined the extent of habitat change under several prediction models, focusing on sea-level rise (SLR) over the next 100 years. We also examined the compounding effect of coastal development.

Results/Conclusions
We found that static habitat response models reduced breeding habitat area under increasing SLR estimates. In dynamic habitat models, which allowed habitat to migrate upslope and inland, we found an increase in potential habitat. However, coastal development reduced migrating habitat gains by 5 to 12%, depending on SLR predictions. To conserve plover habitat, management will need to focus on protecting coastal processes that shift and create habitat. To assure that plover habitat is available on barrier islands in the future, land planning and actions need to promote natural overwash and habitat migration, while minimizing human development.