There is mounting evidence that the frequency and severity of extreme climatic events (e.g., drought, heat waves) is already increasing in many regions, and global climate models forecast that atmospheric warming is expected to further increase both the probability of occurrence and the magnitude of these events over the next century. While there have been numerous studies examining the effects of changes in climatic means on ecological processes and ecosystems, research on extreme climatic events is much less common. Climate extremes research is arguably more challenging to conduct because both the magnitude and temporal extent of extreme climate events need to be considered, particularly in the context of thresholds of ecosystem response. Because so little is known of the relationship between magnitude and temporal extent for climatic extremes for any given ecosystem or ecological process, the selection of treatment levels is even more critical than in experiments with climatic means.
Results/Conclusions
The purpose of this talk is to identify gaps in our understanding of the impacts of extreme climatic events on ecological systems, provide examples of new research approaches that can provide needed insight into this understudied aspect of climate change, and propose a research agenda for the future that includes recommendations on the types of questions that need to be answered to further our understanding of ecosystem responses to this key aspect of both contemporary and future climates.
