Marine spatial planning in its most empowered form is one step in a reiterative process that alternates with close monitoring of the ecological and socioeconomic outcomes of zoning. Every change in zoning policy thus becomes an experimental perturbation whose effects can be assessed scientifically, and the resulting insights fed back into policy: i.e., actively adaptive, ecosystem-based management. This approach to marine science-guided governance hinges around decisions about ecosystem service trade-offs, and can be greatly facilitated by models that capture the behavior of nature and society under different trade-off scenarios.
Results/Conclusions
We are developing a system of spatial models and decision tools to enable actively adaptive marine management in Massachusetts under the authority of the Massachusetts Oceans Act of 2008. The essential elements of this system are: (1) biophysical and socioeconomic data in GIS format, including expert estimation of cumulative human impacts; (2) an ontology for ecosystem functions and services; (3) valuation of ecosystem services; (4) complementary (expert opinion, public opinion, and dynamic modeling) approaches to trade-off analysis; (5) data and process-intensive whole-system models capable of anticipating social and natural knock-on impacts of MSP decisions; and (6) a graphic-user interface decision tool that enables users to visualize and experience the system behavior and insights gained from elements 1-5. Drawing upon early products for each of these elements, we illustrate ecosystem service tradeoffs related to offshore energy installations in Massachusetts. While valuable individually and in their simplest forms, the 6 elements together allow for a sophisticated exploration of alternative policy scenarios. Furthermore, they frame an MSP solution as a testable hypothesis for achieving the diverse and often conflicting objectives inherent to ecosystem-based management. We have also applied the elements of this approach internationally through the Marine Management Area Science Program (Conservation International) and other projects.
