In this talk, I will briefly review the Resilience Conceptual Framework, particularly as it applies to Ecosystem Services, and then discuss: (a) the interactions of a particular urban system (Phoenix, AZ) with its hinterlands; and (b) the consequences of increasing global urbanization for management of ecosystem services more generally. The Phoenix metropolitan area is located at the northern edge of the Sonoran desert ecosystem; climate change projections indicate higher temperatures and lower rainfall in the years to come. The main ecosystem-service challenge presented by this for urban residents is to mitigate the combined negative impacts of the urban heat island and increasing temperatures, with water provisioning being of secondary (but still important) concern. Globally, the world will continue to be increasingly urban, with profound consequences for the physical structure of landscapes. At the same time, these patterns of urbanization will alter the value residents place on different ecosystem services, which has consequences for the ways landscapes should be managed to deliver an optimal flow of benefits.
Results/Conclusions
The popular notion that urban systems should be integrated with their hinterlands—allowing flow, for instance, of native species across “green corridors” in the urban landscape—may not always be the best way to manage ecosystem services for the broader hinterland. The profound shifts in urban populations expected in the next 50 years will alter which ecosystem services are considered most important, and which need to be more actively managed.
