The wolf-moose research on Isle Royale represents the longest, intensive and continuous study of any predator-prey system in the world. Long-term research is relatively rare and challenged by a number of obstacles – some more obvious than others. Do the benefits of long-term research outweigh the costs of overcoming the obstacles? What are the benefits? What are the obstacles? Are they worth fighting for? We use the Isle Royale experience to explore these questions.
Results/Conclusions
Isle Royale data suggest that functional responses and numerical responses (cornerstones of predation ecology) are less useful than expected for predicting predation dynamics. Also, we once thought wolves and moose on Isle Royale represented a stable balance-of-nature. We’ve long since learned nothing could be further from the truth. For two decades (1960 & 70s), wolves appeared to have been the dominant influence on moose. An unpredictable, catastrophic wolf disease – though it affected wolves directly for only a few years – altered moose dynamics for the next two decades (1980s & 90s). During this time, moose dynamics were dominated by climate, not wolves. In 1997, a chance arrival of an immigrant brought an infusion of new genetic material to the isolated wolf population. Since that single immigration, the influence of wolves on moose dynamics seems to have increased. The most important lesson from Isle Royale seems to be: the longer we observe, the more we learn how little we understand.
The traditional purpose of ecological science is prediction. However, the long-view on Isle Royale suggests how fundamentally limited we are in our ability to predict. If nature is more contingent and less law-like than we’ve been comfortable believing, should the purpose of ecological science be reconsidered? Our experience sharing discoveries with the general public suggest that an underappreciated purpose of ecological science may be generating a sense of wonder and appreciation for nature – an attitude that may have more potential for motivating sustainable living than overconfidence in our ability to predict future ecological conditions.
