With the increased prevalence and scale of anthropogenic influences on native habitats, many species, particularly rare and endemic species, are at risk of extinction. Understanding species responses to regional climatic change is imperative for conservation purposes. In response to xeric environments, plants often have similar suites of traits that are thought to be adaptive and could, therefore, be less negatively affected changes in temperature and precipitation. Conversely, local habitat conditions may also play an important role in the abiotic conditions experienced at the individual level. More exposed habitats, such as the Ozark glades, may be more influenced by regional climate change due to limited evaporative cooling and the latent heat of exposed bedrock. We used herbarium specimens and a phenological dataset collected by various naturalists in eastern Missouri to test these two alternative hypotheses.
Results/Conclusions
We found evidence of both pre-adaptation and a habitat effect on plant species’ responses to local warming. Seasonality also had an effect on response rates, with species that bloom later in the season having higher response rates, in contrast to prevailing trends. Stress-adaptation and habitat differentially affect species responses to climatic change, which lend insight into basic biological mechanisms determining plant flowering phenology.
