Print PageGlobal warming is changing local climatic conditions and opening higher latitudinal regions to plant and animal species. However, to make realistic predictions and move beyond simplified generalizations climate change research should build on the assertion that it will not be only a changing climate but a combination of drivers that will lead to future ecosystems. For that we should pursue rigorous assessments of global change on the actual ecosystems and settings we are interested in, evaluations that can be realistically translated into management plans focusing on the adaptation and mitigation to climate change.
To achieve this goal, we will need information on those species performance under the new conditions. In particular, demographic data will be needed to be able to assess the short-term impact of global change on biodiversity and to obtain the realistic estimates of the parameters that can be fed into predictive models of vegetation shifts. We carried out experimental work to test the competitive potential of tree species tracking global warming when they establish in novel communities beyond their distributional ranges. Local and potential migrant species were planted at two latitudes (within and beyond their current ranges) along a series of environmental gradients (soil moisture, light, nutrients).
Results/Conclusions
The assertion that most effective recruitment of individuals of tree species takes place after a disturbance, i.e., in open spaces, may not apply to most species, as these may constitute hostile environments for seedling establishment where desiccation and possibly herbivory rates are higher. Although there were notable species-specific idiosyncrasies in the response to the tested environmental variables, the group of migrant species had similar growth rates than those of the local community ensuring that if dispersal takes place in sufficient numbers many of these species could colonize areas beyond their current distributional ranges.
