Print PageThe prevention of infectious diseases is one of the global challenges of the 21st century. Combating new and known diseases in humans, wildlife, livestock, and plants will require major innovations and new approaches. Now, in the early 21st century, when the scale of the challenge has become clear, we are constrained by two imperfect approaches to combating disease outbreaks. One is the classic biomedical approach in which key organisms, e.g. the pathogen and its primary reservoir, are identified as quickly as possible and attempts are made to eradicate them. The second approach – preferred by ecologists – is to identify all of the species involved and the factors that influence their abundance and behavior, which can ultimately lead to management recommendations. In an outbreak, when the pathogen is largely restricted to one species of host and is transmitted directly among individuals, the biomedical approach to battling disease is usually effective. However, when the pathogen is more generalized – e.g. infects multiple host species, or is transmitted indirectly – the ecological approach is likely to be necessary, albeit painfully slow.
Results/Conclusions
Adequately predicting and managing disease outbreaks in the 21st century will require rapid, targeted responses that are also ecologically sophisticated. These will come from knowing enough about disease transmission in complex communities that we can make educated guesses about disease dynamics before a decade has been spent gathering information. The best hope for achieving this standard comes from trait-based disease ecology. Using examples from well-known disease systems, we will lay out the potential of using traits to predict and manage outbreaks.
