CANCELLED - Water and forced migration

Background/Question/Methods

This paper examines the relationship between water and migration patterns of political refugees. In 2008, there were 42 million forcibly displaced people in the world, of which 15.2 million were classified by the UN as refugees. Unlike other types of migrant flows that occur slowly over long time intervals, refugees leave their homelands in sudden mass exodus. As a consequence a few countries' nationals represent disproportionate shares of the world's refugees at any given point in time. In 1994 conflict in Rwanda prompted more than one million refugees to cross into Zaire over a few days. Wars in Iraq and Afghanistan have produced over half of the world's current refugees, and strife in Zimbabwe led 118,500 Zimbabweans to seek asylum in 2008. 96% of the 2.8 million Afghan refugees reside in either Pakistan or the Islamic Republic of Iran.

We use a gravity model of migration to test if water availability influences the destination choice of refugees, including effects that account for institutional factors such as rule of law and adaptation of UN refugee policies. The gravity model is then used to parameterize an agent based model of refugee location choice to predict refugee flows.

Results/Conclusions

Our main finding is that migrants move from relatively water-scarce countries to relatively water-abundant countries, though population movement is more prominent in dry regions of the world. A one percent increase in water per capita in the destination country increases the number of refugees by over 5 %. A one percent decrease in water per capita in the source country increases the number of refugees by 2 %. The relative dierence between the two countries increases the number of refugees by 3.8 %.

Most refugees leave their homes by land, crossing first into neighboring countries. Some continue to other countries, but three-fourths stay within the immediate region of their homeland, and a few countries with favorable refugee policies absorb most of the people. To the extent that climate is a regional phenomenon, countries that are already experiencing water stress will experience even more stress after refugees arrive. There are a number of possible explanations for the role water plays in determining refugee movements. Refugees oftenfind employment in the agricultural sector, which is larger in countries with more water. If employment opportunities are available, refugees are more likely to stay.