COS 6-6 - Toward understanding the community consequences of species-specific phenological shifts under climate change

Monday, August 8, 2011: 3:20 PM
6B, Austin Convention Center
Takefumi Nakazawa, Center for Ecological Research, Kyoto University, Japan and Hideyuki Doi, Institute for Chemistry and Biology of the Marine Environment, University Oldenburg, Germany
Background/Question/Methods

Understanding the impact of global climate change on biodiversity and ecosystem function is a pressing concern. One of the most notable climate effects is the shifting phenology of life-history events (e.g., breeding, migration, and flowering). Recent studies have shown that phenological shifts are occurring in a species-specific manner (i.e., with different extents and directions) and that this species specificity has significant impacts on the dynamics of pairwise trophic interactions by synchronizing/desynchronizing the phenologies of interacting species. However, at present, little is known about how species-specific phenological shifts influence larger ecological communities. Here we propose a trophic module-based approach involving the phenology of demographic parameters as an initial step for exploring the community consequences of species-specific phenological shifts.

Results/Conclusions

Our preliminary predictions indicate that phenological match/mismatch among interacting species critically affects key features of multispecies dynamics, such as trophic cascades, competitive hierarchies, and species coexistence. We suggest that our multispecies match/mismatch perspective can contribute to a better understanding of climate impacts on biodiversity.

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