COS 6-6 - Toward understanding the community consequences of species-specific phenological shifts under climate change

Monday, August 8, 2011: 3:20 PM
6B, Austin Convention Center
Takefumi Nakazawa, Center for Ecological Research, Kyoto University, Japan and Hideyuki Doi, Institute for Chemistry and Biology of the Marine Environment, University Oldenburg, Germany

Understanding the impact of global climate change on biodiversity and ecosystem function is a pressing concern. One of the most notable climate effects is the shifting phenology of life-history events (e.g., breeding, migration, and flowering). Recent studies have shown that phenological shifts are occurring in a species-specific manner (i.e., with different extents and directions) and that this species specificity has significant impacts on the dynamics of pairwise trophic interactions by synchronizing/desynchronizing the phenologies of interacting species. However, at present, little is known about how species-specific phenological shifts influence larger ecological communities. Here we propose a trophic module-based approach involving the phenology of demographic parameters as an initial step for exploring the community consequences of species-specific phenological shifts.


Our preliminary predictions indicate that phenological match/mismatch among interacting species critically affects key features of multispecies dynamics, such as trophic cascades, competitive hierarchies, and species coexistence. We suggest that our multispecies match/mismatch perspective can contribute to a better understanding of climate impacts on biodiversity.

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