COS 46-5 - Incorporating imperfect detection into a classification and regression tree model of occupancy

Tuesday, August 9, 2011: 2:50 PM
16A, Austin Convention Center
Mark McKelvey, Statistics, Iowa State University, Ames and Philip M. Dixon, Statistics, Iowa State University, Ames, IA
Background/Question/Methods

Classification and Regression Tree (CART) models provide a flexible way to relate species presence/absence to habitat characteristics, but standard CART algorithms ignore imperfect detection. When imperfect detection is ignored, present but not seen is treated as absent.  We describe a new tree splitting algorithm based on a likelihood ratio test. The likelihood function accounts for imperfect detection. We describe four possible likelihood functions that correspond to different assumptions about how detection changes over the classification tree.   

Results/Conclusions

We illustrate the analysis with data on mountain plovers. Three of the methods produce the same tree structure as the naive tree that ignores detection; the fourth does not. Estimated occupancy probabilities are consistently lower in a detection-adjusted tree.

Copyright © . All rights reserved.
Banner photo by Flickr user greg westfall.