CANCELLED - Does the evolution of cold tolerance contribute to insect outbreaks?

Background/Question/Methods:  Recent decades have seen dramatic outbreaks of insects such Mountain Pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae). A major driver of such outbreaks seems to be reduced mortality due to fewer early winter cold temperature events. In turn changes in the frequency of such cold snaps have been linked to climate change. A major source of uncertainty when predicting insect outbreaks is the ability of organisms to adapt this symptom of climate change.

Results/Conclusions:  To address this problem we develop a simple quantitative genetics model and analyze the extent to which evolutionary adaptation to early winter mortality 1) alters the response of overwintering organisms to climate change 2) and two alters the population dynamics of overwintering organisms. Our results suggest that it is particularly difficult for organisms to evolve in response to changes in the frequency of early winter cold temperature events.