Vegetation and soil carbon stock changes in South Korea, 2005-2030

Background/Question/Methods

The amount of carbon stored in soil and vegetation varies according to land use, and changes in land use affect those carbon stocks. Land-use changes (LUCs) also affect greenhouse gas emissions. The prediction of LUC is therefore necessary in order to establish quantitative targets for CO₂ reduction. This study attempts to model LUC and associated changes in carbon stock for South Korea between the years of 2005 and 2030. It examines four land-use change scenarios that cover the range of possible futures suggested by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Each scenario is assessed in terms of its effect on South Korean carbon stocks.

Results/Conclusions

Under all four scenarios, afforestation leads to carbon sequestration with an average net uptake of 22.4 ~ 31.5 MtC. The scenario yielding the highest sequestration rate increase (from 12.4 to 14.1 MtC/year) results in levels of sequestration equal to 8.3% percent of South Korea’s 2005 CO₂ emissions. This can be equated with an improvement in economic efficiency of between 269 million to 304 million dollars. Clear differences among the scenarios tested suggest that land use must be regarded as an important factor in any plan for future carbon sequestration.

This work was supported by the Korea Environmental Industry and Technology Institute (KEITI) grant funded by the Korea government(ME) (No. 416-111-014)