Print PageChagas disease is an important parasitic disease caused by the flagellate protozoan Trypanosoma cruzi, bringing great distress to the public health field in the Americas. T. cruzi is known for utilizing Triatominae insects (kissing bugs) as vectors in areas with a tropical/subtropical humid habitat. In this study the potential consequences of climate change on the distribution of Chagas disease vectors were analyzed by the creation of models for the prediction of potential distribution under different climate scenarios for the South Texas-Mexico border in the present and future (50 years from now). These distributions of vector T. gerstaeckeri were estimated using the projected moderate climate change scenario A1B of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), incorporating 19 climatic variables in MaxEnt software version 3.3.3a. Additionally, the Canadian model from the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, and the Australian model from the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation were applied.
Results/Conclusions
Models showed a noticeable change in the distribution of the vectors with a northward shift by 2050. T. gerstaeckeri, the most important vector for Chagas disease in this region, demonstrated drastic change in future geographic location since the predicted area of distribution included most of the state of Texas.
Future changes in both temperature and precipitation contributed to the distribution of the vectors, however, the mean temperature of the driest quarter and the mean temperature of the warmest quarter appeared to be the most limiting variables. Field work will continue in the area in order to obtain estimations of the incidence and abundance of the vector to better inform health policy makers about the presence of this neglected disease in the region.
