OOS 24 - From Projections to Decisions: Integrating Climate Change and Ecological Models to Inform Regional Conservation Strategies

Wednesday, August 10, 2011: 8:00 AM-11:30 AM
14, Austin Convention Center
Organizer: Jennifer K. Costanza
Co-organizer: Max Post van der Burg
Moderator: Sonya Jones
The goal of this session is to address technical and applied aspects of modeling climate change impacts on conservation targets at regional scales. Recent studies have projected impacts using climate projections done at fairly coarse global and continental scales, or using downscaled climate data that fails to capture ecologically relevant variables. However, projections of ecologically relevant climate variables are needed at finer scales if they are to inform regional and local conservation planning. Likewise, climate impact studies have typically not incorporated the uncertainty associated with climate projections. Uncertainty is inherent in climate change projections as well as models of climate change impacts. Understanding how this uncertainty influences management and conservation planning assumptions is a critical component of the conservation decision making process. This session will cover information on downscaling projections of global climate change models for regional analyses while accounting for uncertainty, application of these climate projections in models of landscape dynamics and species occupancy, incorporating climate-based ecological models into robust conservation planning frameworks under climate change, and case studies of assessments of species vulnerability and management priorities under climate change. As a whole, this session will provide useful information for ecologists and land managers about how to use climate change projections and their associated uncertainties to inform regional conservation actions.
8:00 AM
8:20 AM
Modeling the impact of climate change on regional vegetation dynamics via effects on the fire regime
Jennifer K. Costanza, North Carolina State University; Todd S. Earnhardt, North Carolina State University; Adam Terando, Biodiversity and Spatial Information Center; Alexa McKerrow, United States Geological Survey
9:00 AM
Simulation of hydrologic response to climate change using the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System in the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin in the Southeastern USA
Jacob H. LaFontaine, USGS; Lauren E. Hay, USGS; Roland J. Viger, USGS; Steve L. Markstrom, USGS; R. Steve Regan, USGS
9:20 AM
Modeling habitat dynamics accounting for possible misclassification
Sophie Veran, USGS; James D. Nichols, U.S. Geological Survey; Jaime A. Collazo, U.S. Geological Survey, North Carolina Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit
9:40 AM
9:50 AM
Making robust landscape planning decisions under severe uncertainty due to climate change
Max Post van der Burg, US Geological Survey; James B. Grand, USGS Alabama Cooperative Fisheries and Wildlife Research Unit
10:10 AM
Using species-level vulnerability assessments to inform conservation planning under climate change
Natalie S. Dubois, Defenders of Wildlife; Amielle DeWan, Rare; Judith L. Boshoven, Defenders of Wildlife; Douglas C. Parsons, Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission
10:30 AM
Using species traits and geomorphic characteristics to condition coarse-resolution assessment of climate change effects on aquatic species
Mary C. Freeman, USGS Patuxent Wildlife Research Center; James T. Peterson, USGS Oregon Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit, Oregon State University; Caroline M. Elliott, USGS Columbia Environmental Research Center; Colin P. Shea, University of Georgia, Warnell School of Forestry and Natural Resources; Megan M. Hagler, University of Georgia, Odum School of Ecology
10:50 AM
From prediction to action; the science of saving species from climate change
Brendan A. Wintle, University of Melbourne; Sarah A. Bekessy, RMIT University; David A. Keith, Department of Environment and Climate Change New South Wales; Brian van Wilgen, CSIR South Africa; Hugh P. Possingham, University of Queensland
11:10 AM
Amphibian response to climate change in the southeastern US: A model for identifying priorities
Kyle Barrett, Clemson University; Nathan P. Nibbelink, University of Georgia; John C. Maerz, University of Georgia
See more of: Organized Oral Session
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