Only fools and newcomers predict the future: The hubris of forecasting

Background/Question/Methods

Recognizing that degradation of mountain ecosystems affects nearly half the world’s population, the United Nations declared 2002 the International Year of Mountains.  We published Rocky Mountain Futures, An Ecological Perspective that same year in an attempt to look objectively at the cumulative ecological effects of human activity in the Rocky Mountains.  We asked how ecosystems have changed as a result of past human use and project how they may look in the future, given current uses of natural resources in the region.   We concluded that the accumulation of many local decisions about land use, hydrologic manipulation, and resource extraction or management has altered ecosystems, although there were examples where the ‘tyranny of small decisions” worked in a positive way toward restoration, protection, and more sustainable coupled human/environment interactions.  Superimposed on local change was climate change, atmospheric deposition of nitrogen and other pollutants, some national management policies such as fire suppression, and increasing human immigration. However, the overwhelming negative influences, we judged, were caused by small-scale short-term decisions made without consideration of long-term ecosystem-scale environmental sustainability.  Ten years later we revisit this profoundly human landscape to ask whether local decisions still drive ecological change, whether ecological conditions are improving or degrading, and whether ten years of global change and talk about ecosystem management and environmental stewardship have made a difference.

Results/Conclusions

While decisions about Rocky Mountain resources are still made locally, they are increasingly influenced by regional, national and global forces.  Several decades of warming temperatures from human-caused climate change have exposed Westerners to temperature and precipitation extremes and caused widespread changes in hydrologic patterns. Earlier snowmelt and vegetation growth are now known to affect disturbance patterns and the moisture available for plants.  National and global energy policies have spawned unprecedented development of both fossil fuel and renewable energy development.  Massive changes in forest health from insect outbreaks, disease, fire and drought are evident across the West.  And a stagnant global economy has dramatically slowed immigration, suburban, and exurban development.  In response primarily to climate change projections, broad coalitions of stakeholders and resource managers are beginning to consider future scenarios of change as they develop plans for adapting to climate change.  Adaptation options range from increased resource use efficiencies to multijurisdictional collaborations for forest, wildlife, and water conservation while facilitating resource development.