Scenarios for assessing the future of social-ecological systems

Background/Question/Methods

Predictions of the future of complex social-ecological systems are extremely difficult. Yet, if we are going to plan ahead and attempt to make forward-looking decisions, thinking about the future is unavoidable. Even if prediction is impossible, we may be able to scope out the range of important outcomes. That is a key step toward understanding uncertainty and the range of  possibilities for the future.

One approach for organizing information about the future of social-ecological systems is scenario planning. Scenarios are a structured set of contrasting stories about the future. They provide a framework for quantitative modeling of future outcomes. They also provide non-technical account of the future that is accessible to the general public. Management options can be examined to assess outcomes under each scenario. The better options yield good outcomes under a wider range of scenarios.

Results/Conclusions

The Water Sustainability and Climate (WSC) project at UW-Madison is developing scenarios for the future of the Yahara Watershed, Wisconsin, for about 50 years (to 2060).  The WSC scenarios draw ideas about the future from a program of interviews and workshops that engage a diverse cross-section of the public. Thus we are attempting to sample a broad range of perspectives of what the future might bring. We will then cluster the perspectives into a manageable number of contrasting viewpoints about the future. Each of these viewpoints will become the theme of a story about the watershed.

For each qualitative storyline we will estimate trajectories of climate, land use and cover, and management practices for agriculture, urban areas, and water resources. These trajectories will be used to drive models of agroecosystems, hydrology, urban runoff and water quality. The model results will yield estimates of ecosystem services, including soil carbon storage, crop yield, albedo, water budgets and pollution dilution, lake levels, groundwater recharge and quality, soil retention, surface water quality, and properties of the lakes relevant to recreation.